Florida State
Florida State feature a pro-style offense under Jimbo Fisher, who employs a number a different formation that attempt to attack a defense on all levels. Leading Fisher's offense is dual-threat QB, Christian Ponder (Ponder is questionable with a bruised ribs). The offense leans on the pass more than the run (62% to 38%) and Ponder, who completes just shy of 70% of his attempts, spreads the ball around to bevy of receivers lead by Bert Reed, Rob Owens and Jarmon Fortson.
Christian Ponder
The Noles running attack doesn't strike as much fear in opponents as their passing game, but the ability of Ponder to move the chains with his legs adds another dimension to back Jermaine Thomas.
Clemson
The Tigers also run a pro-style offense under Dabo Swinney and Billy Napier, but prefer to mix in more motion and get the balls in the hands of their running backs and tight ends over their wide receivers. Unlike FSU, Clemson prefers to lean on its running game (55% to 45%) behind Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Spiller and talented redshirt freshman Andre Ellington. Kyle Parker comes in to the game completing just 52% of his passes, but the redshirt freshmen has improved in recent weeks with a focus on getting the ball in the hands of his RBs and TEs. Clemson's WR are a liability outside of speedster, Jacoby Ford, who is the only WR on the roster with over 10 catches.
QB - Big Advantage FSU
OL - Slight Advantage FSU
RB - Big Advantage Clemson
WR - Big Advantage FSU
Overall Offense - Advantage FSU
Defense
Florida State
The Seminoles use a base 4-3 defense with man-free coverage and a rover that has been a staple under Mickey Andrew since the late 80s. The Noles pretty much play the exact same defense 80% of the time, so opposing offenses know exactly what the are facing. Surprisingly a scheme that was dominate throughout the 80s, 90s and most of the 00s has become a huge liability in 2009.
The Noles just are not that talented in their front seven especially up the middle where they start former Byrnes HS tweener DE/DT, Everrett Dawkins at DT and generally lack playmakers outside of former South Aiken HS star Dekota Watson.
The back-four is talented outside of Corey Mangum who makes Kyler Hall look like an All-American, but just doesn't seem to be well coached constantly blowing assignments and allowing wide receivers to run free.
Clemson
Clemson also goes with a 4-3 usually running a base 1-Robber Man or base Cover-2 Man, but Kevin Steele likes to mix in more fronts and bring a variety of pressure.
Clemson is stacked on the defensive line lead up the middle by DT's Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson and on the ends with Dequan Bowers (Bowers is questionable with a knee injury) and Ricky Sapp who leads the Tigers with 4 sacks.
The linebackers are Clemson weakest spot defensive. A key for the Tigers will be keeping Ponder in check in the running game and place that Clemson has issues with in losses to TCU and Maryland.
The defensive backs are lead by safety DeAndre McDaniel who leads the nation in interceptions with 7. Crezdon Butler has prospered in the switch from zone to man defense under Steele, but Chris Chancellor has struggled a bit giving up some chunk plays.
DL - Big Advantage Clemson
LB - Advantage Clemson
DB - Big Advantage Clemson
Overall Defense - Big Advantage Clemson
Special Teams
Florida State
The Noles are average at kick and punt returns, talent freshmen, Greg Reid looks to be the type of player that could take it to the house at anytime.
Punter, Shawn Powell nets an average of 40.7 yards per kick while kicker, Dustin Harris is consistent inside 40 but struggles outside 40, but has distance to hit from 50+.
Clemson
Clemson has returned 5 kicks for TDs including 3 KOs and 1 PR, by the best return man in the nation in C.J. Spiller. Most teams have started kicking away from Spiller giving Clemson excellent field position as a result.
C.J Spiller
Punter, Dawson Zimmerman nets an average of 39 yards per kick while big-legged kicker, Richard Jackson is consistent inside 40 and hits slightly 50% outside 40 yards including 3/3 from 50+.
Kick Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punt Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punting - Advantage FSU
Kicking - Slight Advantage Clemson
Overall Special Teams - Big Advantage Clemson
Closing Thoughts
Florida State has the advantage offensively, but their strength throwing the ball matches-up well with Clemson's strength stopping the pass. Clemson offense is average but goes up against one of the worst defenses in the country in FSU. Clemson will not shut down the Noles offense, but will keep the Noles under 30 points
Clemson special teams should give the Tigers great field position and help their offense put up points perhaps even chipping in another TD if FSU decides to kick to Spiller.
The Valley should be rocking at night and it would take Florida State playing great offensively coupled with an off-night for Parker for the Noles to pull the upset.
Clemson 31 - FSU 24
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