Friday, November 20, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Debunking Jeremy B
Jeremy Branham, a South Carolina Gamecock fan who lives in Sacramento, CA, recently spent a considerable time and effort writing an article and sending it to media members in an effort to derail C.J. Spiller's Heisman candidacy. But instead, Jeremy just ended up looking like a fool who failed Statistics 101.
Legitimate Werewolf
Italics are quotes from Jeremy's article.
Spiller is 46th in the nation in rushing. Some might argue that there were games he didn’t carry the ball that much and was held out. However, look at his numbers for the number of touches he gets. Spiller averages 5.46 yards per carry, 45th in the nation among all RBs. 50 out of his 153 carries, or nearly 1 out of every 3, have been for 1 yard or less. Taking into account all his offensive production (running, receiving), he ranks 20th in the nation with 1218 yards. 15 RBs are above CJ in terms of their offensive production.
Jeremy starts this paragraph with a seeming acknowledgment of Spiller's combined 9 carries against Middle Tennessee State and Coastal Carolina, thus making the point that it is unfair to look at cumulative stats. Yet then he closes the paragraph by saying that Spiller only ranks 20th in the nation (15th among RBs) in terms of total offensive production: a stat that would be greatly affected by having only 9 touches in those games combined.
Jeremy then states that Spiller averages only 5.5 yards per carry, but he doesn't consider the fact that Spiller has played behind a mediocre line on a bum toe for the entire season and regardless this is still higher than the 5.3 yards per carry that Toby Gerhart averages. Gerhart, of course, is legit Heisman candidate according to Jeremy, but Spiller is not. Go figure.
Spiller’s rushing stats are grossly overinflated by 1 or 2 long runs a game. The rest of the time, Spiller is actually a below average back. Check out the numbers through the FSU game:
Middle Tenn - 4 carries, 12 yards 3 ypc
GT - 1 carry for 20 yards and another for 25 yards, other 18 carries for 42 yards 2.33 ypc
BC - long of 13 yards, other 16 carries for 64 yards. decent at 4 ypc
TCU - long of 34 yards, other 24 carries for 78 yards. 3.25 ypc
MD - long of 12 yards, other 17 carries for 60 yards. 3.52 ypc
WF - long of 66 yards, other 8 carries for 40 yards. decent 5 ypc
Miami - long of 48, other 13 carries for 33 yards 2.54 ypc
FSU - long of 45, 21, and 36. Other 19 carries were for 63 yards. 3.32 ypc
This is the quite possible the dumbest statistic that I have ever seen in my life.
Who takes out 1-3 of the best stats and then averages the rest? Sorry, CJ, your 8 plays of 50+ yards this season no longer count. Those 3 long runs against FSU that helped win the game? Those are gone, too, because according to Jeremy, the only accurate way to measure a players value is by factoring out big plays.
Of course Mark Ingram's or Toby Gerhart's or Tim Tebow's or Colt McCoy's stats don't look as impressive either if you factor out their biggest 1-3 plays of the game, but Jeremy fails to mention this fact.
Voters Please Factor These Plays Out
Most will argue that CJ is such an exciting player because it is special teams as well. While he has 3 TDs, he is not even the best kick returner in the nation.
Spiller has 4 special teams TDs not 3, but perhaps Jeremy just factored that TD out because it was a big play and thus should not count in Spiller's favor.
Spiller is 4th in the nation in kickoff return average at 34 yards per return, but is 1st in the nation in percentage of kick offs returned for TD at 19%. DJ Monroe from Texas is second in nation at 14%.
Also not factored into Spiller numbers are the numerous times that teams have given up field position to kick away from him.
A couple of examples include the opening kickoff against Wake Forest where Clemson started on Wake's 46 after a short kick to avoid Spiller, and against NCSU where Clemson started at NCSU 17 after a punt travelled 6 yards in an attempt to angle the ball away from Spiller.
These numbers don't show up in the stats, but a player that puts so much fear into opposing teams that they are willing to routinely give your offense great starting field position cannot be underestimated and is more important than Jeremy is willing to admit.
CJ averages 9.81 yards per play (including rushing, receiving, and returns). That average actually puts him at 50th in the nation. What this tells us is that his total yards are grossly overinflated based on kick and punt returns.
Spiller might be 50th in nation in yards per play, but if Jeremy knew much about football then he would know that yards per play is dominated by wide receivers and return specialists, not running backs.
What is funny is that if you throw out return yards for Spiller, Gerhardt, and Ingram, and focus only on rushing and receiving, you get the following yards per play:
Spiller - 6.9
Ingram - 6.9
Gerhardt - 5.5
Spiller is hyped as an exciting player who is a threat every time he touches the ball. Yet Clemson is ranked 63rd in the nation in offense. And of there 40 TDs, Spiller has scored 11 of them. Only 7 of those have actually come on offense (rushing or receiving). He might be a threat but his play doesn’t turn into many TDs or much offense for Clemson. Contrast this with a player like Gerhart whose team is 14th in the nation in offense. He has accounted for 19 of Stanford’s 47 TDs and has truly carried this team. The same could be said of Mark Ingram as well. Neither player is flashy like Spiller but these two players, in just runing the ball only, have been more valuable and more productive playing in better conferences against better teams than Spiller. And Spiller’s stats are grossly overinflated and overvalued by one of the easiest yardage stats in football - returns
Spiller's play doesn't turn into many TD according to Jeremy, yet Spiller has a lower touch per TD average then either Gerhart or Ingram.
Spiller averages 1 TD per every 13.7 touches
Gerhart averages 1 TD per every 14.2 touches
Ingram averages 1 TD per every 16.9 touches
These stats are not accurate according to Jeremy B, though, because they count Spiller's 4 TDs on special teams. Apparently, only offensive TDs show up on the scoreboard and really the only accurate way to measure the value of CJ Spiller is to look at yards per rush (but only after factoring out long runs!).
I am not a fan of Tebow, Ingram, McCoy, Gerhart, or any of their teams. I just think including Spiller as a candidate is based more on hype rather than substance.
No, but what you are is a South Carolina fan who is biased against Clemson and CJ Spiller. You also don't know how to properly use statistics and apparently know very little about the game if you think that special teams doesn't have a profound effect on the outcome.
Spiller might not be the best pure RB in the country, but when you combine his impact in the running game, in the passing game, and in the return game, Spiller deserves to be in the mix for Heisman just as much as Tebow, Ingram, McCoy or Gerhart
Legitimate Werewolf
Italics are quotes from Jeremy's article.
Spiller is 46th in the nation in rushing. Some might argue that there were games he didn’t carry the ball that much and was held out. However, look at his numbers for the number of touches he gets. Spiller averages 5.46 yards per carry, 45th in the nation among all RBs. 50 out of his 153 carries, or nearly 1 out of every 3, have been for 1 yard or less. Taking into account all his offensive production (running, receiving), he ranks 20th in the nation with 1218 yards. 15 RBs are above CJ in terms of their offensive production.
Jeremy starts this paragraph with a seeming acknowledgment of Spiller's combined 9 carries against Middle Tennessee State and Coastal Carolina, thus making the point that it is unfair to look at cumulative stats. Yet then he closes the paragraph by saying that Spiller only ranks 20th in the nation (15th among RBs) in terms of total offensive production: a stat that would be greatly affected by having only 9 touches in those games combined.
Jeremy then states that Spiller averages only 5.5 yards per carry, but he doesn't consider the fact that Spiller has played behind a mediocre line on a bum toe for the entire season and regardless this is still higher than the 5.3 yards per carry that Toby Gerhart averages. Gerhart, of course, is legit Heisman candidate according to Jeremy, but Spiller is not. Go figure.
Spiller’s rushing stats are grossly overinflated by 1 or 2 long runs a game. The rest of the time, Spiller is actually a below average back. Check out the numbers through the FSU game:
Middle Tenn - 4 carries, 12 yards 3 ypc
GT - 1 carry for 20 yards and another for 25 yards, other 18 carries for 42 yards 2.33 ypc
BC - long of 13 yards, other 16 carries for 64 yards. decent at 4 ypc
TCU - long of 34 yards, other 24 carries for 78 yards. 3.25 ypc
MD - long of 12 yards, other 17 carries for 60 yards. 3.52 ypc
WF - long of 66 yards, other 8 carries for 40 yards. decent 5 ypc
Miami - long of 48, other 13 carries for 33 yards 2.54 ypc
FSU - long of 45, 21, and 36. Other 19 carries were for 63 yards. 3.32 ypc
This is the quite possible the dumbest statistic that I have ever seen in my life.
Who takes out 1-3 of the best stats and then averages the rest? Sorry, CJ, your 8 plays of 50+ yards this season no longer count. Those 3 long runs against FSU that helped win the game? Those are gone, too, because according to Jeremy, the only accurate way to measure a players value is by factoring out big plays.
Of course Mark Ingram's or Toby Gerhart's or Tim Tebow's or Colt McCoy's stats don't look as impressive either if you factor out their biggest 1-3 plays of the game, but Jeremy fails to mention this fact.
Voters Please Factor These Plays Out
Most will argue that CJ is such an exciting player because it is special teams as well. While he has 3 TDs, he is not even the best kick returner in the nation.
Spiller has 4 special teams TDs not 3, but perhaps Jeremy just factored that TD out because it was a big play and thus should not count in Spiller's favor.
Spiller is 4th in the nation in kickoff return average at 34 yards per return, but is 1st in the nation in percentage of kick offs returned for TD at 19%. DJ Monroe from Texas is second in nation at 14%.
Also not factored into Spiller numbers are the numerous times that teams have given up field position to kick away from him.
A couple of examples include the opening kickoff against Wake Forest where Clemson started on Wake's 46 after a short kick to avoid Spiller, and against NCSU where Clemson started at NCSU 17 after a punt travelled 6 yards in an attempt to angle the ball away from Spiller.
These numbers don't show up in the stats, but a player that puts so much fear into opposing teams that they are willing to routinely give your offense great starting field position cannot be underestimated and is more important than Jeremy is willing to admit.
CJ averages 9.81 yards per play (including rushing, receiving, and returns). That average actually puts him at 50th in the nation. What this tells us is that his total yards are grossly overinflated based on kick and punt returns.
Spiller might be 50th in nation in yards per play, but if Jeremy knew much about football then he would know that yards per play is dominated by wide receivers and return specialists, not running backs.
What is funny is that if you throw out return yards for Spiller, Gerhardt, and Ingram, and focus only on rushing and receiving, you get the following yards per play:
Spiller - 6.9
Ingram - 6.9
Gerhardt - 5.5
Spiller is hyped as an exciting player who is a threat every time he touches the ball. Yet Clemson is ranked 63rd in the nation in offense. And of there 40 TDs, Spiller has scored 11 of them. Only 7 of those have actually come on offense (rushing or receiving). He might be a threat but his play doesn’t turn into many TDs or much offense for Clemson. Contrast this with a player like Gerhart whose team is 14th in the nation in offense. He has accounted for 19 of Stanford’s 47 TDs and has truly carried this team. The same could be said of Mark Ingram as well. Neither player is flashy like Spiller but these two players, in just runing the ball only, have been more valuable and more productive playing in better conferences against better teams than Spiller. And Spiller’s stats are grossly overinflated and overvalued by one of the easiest yardage stats in football - returns
Spiller's play doesn't turn into many TD according to Jeremy, yet Spiller has a lower touch per TD average then either Gerhart or Ingram.
Spiller averages 1 TD per every 13.7 touches
Gerhart averages 1 TD per every 14.2 touches
Ingram averages 1 TD per every 16.9 touches
These stats are not accurate according to Jeremy B, though, because they count Spiller's 4 TDs on special teams. Apparently, only offensive TDs show up on the scoreboard and really the only accurate way to measure the value of CJ Spiller is to look at yards per rush (but only after factoring out long runs!).
I am not a fan of Tebow, Ingram, McCoy, Gerhart, or any of their teams. I just think including Spiller as a candidate is based more on hype rather than substance.
No, but what you are is a South Carolina fan who is biased against Clemson and CJ Spiller. You also don't know how to properly use statistics and apparently know very little about the game if you think that special teams doesn't have a profound effect on the outcome.
Spiller might not be the best pure RB in the country, but when you combine his impact in the running game, in the passing game, and in the return game, Spiller deserves to be in the mix for Heisman just as much as Tebow, Ingram, McCoy or Gerhart
Friday, November 13, 2009
Clemson - NC State Preview
Offense
North Carolina State
NC State utilizes a pro-style offense under Dana Bible and focuses a lot of attention on working the ball to the TEs and RBs. NCSU uses a lot more of the field vertically than FSU. Bible's offense is directed by dual-threat QB, Russell Wilson who leads a balanced attack that throws and runs at almost the exact same clip (49% to 51% run to pass). Wilson completes roughly 60% of his attempts focusing a lot of attention on TE George Bryant who has 35 catches for 6 TDs and WR Jarvis Williams and Owen Spence who combine for 53 catches and 10 TDs.
State's running game is led by Toney Baker who averages over 5 YPG, but the real wildcard is the running ability of Russell Wilson who has picked-up large chunks of yardage with his legs both on designed runs and scrambling when the pocket collapses.
Clemson
The Tigers run a pro-style offense under Dabo Swinney and Billy Napier, and like NCSU get the balls in the hands of their tight ends and running backs over their wide receivers. Clemson offense is balanced (55% to 45% run to pass) and leans heavily on Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Spiller and emerging playmaker Andre Ellington to grind out yards on the ground.
Kyle Parker comes in to the game completing 53% of his passes, but the redshirt freshmen has looked much sharper in recent weeks with the emergence of Michael Palmer and Dwayne Allen as primary targets.
Clemson's WR are still a liability outside of speedster, Jacoby Ford, but both Xavier Dye and Terrence Ashe have improved their level of play in recent weeks.
The Tigers have played much better offensively in recent weeks and will need to maintain that high-level of play on the road in Raleigh.
QB - Advantage NCSU
OL – Push to Slight Advantage Clemson
RB - Advantage Clemson
WR - Advantage NCSU
Overall Offense - Advantage NCSU
Defense
North Carolina State
The Pack use a base 4-2-5 defense under Mike Archer that is similar to Vic Koenning’s scheme last year at Clemson. NCSU bring more pressure than Clemson brought under Koenning, but the base defense is similar.
The front-four is the strongest component of their defense led by SR defensive end, Willie Young and SR defensive tackle, Michael Allen-Cash. The Pack have had success stopping the run, but it isn’t a unit that will strike fear into the opposing team.
The back 7 has been hit hard by injuries (Nate Irving, Ryan Cheek, Ray Micheal, Javon Walker, Rashaad Smith) and is lacking in both talent and experience. The Wolfpack play 3 SO linebackers and 3 FR in the secondary and teams have routinely gashed this group both on the ground and through the air.
Clemson
Clemson uses a 4-3 with a base 1-Robber Man or base Cover-2 Man, but Kevin Steele likes to mix in more fronts and bring a variety of pressure.
Clemson is stacked on the defensive line led up the middle by DT's Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson and Ricky Sapp who tops the Tigers with 4 sacks, but DaQuan Bowers will be out again this week with a knee injury.
Clemson's weakest spot defensively is at linebacker, but Steele's plays a lot of nickle bringing in an extra DB. A key for the Tigers will be keeping Wilson in check in the running game and place that Clemson has issues with in losses to TCU and Maryland.
The defensive backs are led by safety DeAndre McDaniel who is first in the nation in interceptions with 8. Crezdon Butler has prospered in the switch from zone to man defense under Steele, but Chris Chancellor has struggled a bit giving up some chunk plays. Back-up CB, Byron Maxwell has really elevated his play in recent weeks.
The biggest issue defensively will be whether or not the defense comes to play on the road. The defense has been outstanding at home, but hasn’t performed up to their capabilities on the road.
DL - Big Advantage Clemson
LB - Advantage Clemson
DB - Big Advantage Clemson
Overall Defense - Big Advantage Clemson
Special Teams
North Carolina State
The Pack are average at kick and punt returns especially with T.J Graham out with a leg injury. Punter, Jeff Ruiz nets an average of 38.8 yards per kick while kicker, Josh Czajkowski is very good having nailed 16 of 19 FG and 100% of his extra points.
Clemson
Clemson has returned 5 kicks for TDs including 3 KOs and 1 PR, by the best return man in the nation in C.J. Spiller. Most teams have started kicking away from Spiller giving Clemson excellent field position as a result.
Punter, Dawson Zimmerman nets an average of 40 yards per kick while Clemson kicking game is currently a mess after imploding during the Florida State game. Spence Benton will start over Richard Jackson.
Kick Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punt Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punting - Push
Kicking – Advantage NCSU
Overall Special Teams - Big Advantage Clemson
Closing Thoughts
NCSU is a mirror image of FSU with good offenses and bad defenses. NCSU has a better DL, while FSU has a better OL (R.J Mattes and Danzelle Good are out for NCSU), so this should be a similar game to last week and might actually be a bit tougher considering it is on the road.
The scariest part of this game is going on the road following a big win at home and coming out flat, but Clemson's offense has improved and their defense has been phyical while creating momentum changing plays, which bodes well for the Tigers avoiding a letdown.
If the Tigers avoid a letdown out of the gate and play up to their potential then the game will not be close, but if Clemson plays down to the competition and it will give the Pack a chance to win the game late.
I think the game will be close until the Tiger’s pull away in the 4th quarter due to superior depth across the depth chart.
Clemson 31 - NCSU 21
North Carolina State
NC State utilizes a pro-style offense under Dana Bible and focuses a lot of attention on working the ball to the TEs and RBs. NCSU uses a lot more of the field vertically than FSU. Bible's offense is directed by dual-threat QB, Russell Wilson who leads a balanced attack that throws and runs at almost the exact same clip (49% to 51% run to pass). Wilson completes roughly 60% of his attempts focusing a lot of attention on TE George Bryant who has 35 catches for 6 TDs and WR Jarvis Williams and Owen Spence who combine for 53 catches and 10 TDs.
State's running game is led by Toney Baker who averages over 5 YPG, but the real wildcard is the running ability of Russell Wilson who has picked-up large chunks of yardage with his legs both on designed runs and scrambling when the pocket collapses.
Clemson
The Tigers run a pro-style offense under Dabo Swinney and Billy Napier, and like NCSU get the balls in the hands of their tight ends and running backs over their wide receivers. Clemson offense is balanced (55% to 45% run to pass) and leans heavily on Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Spiller and emerging playmaker Andre Ellington to grind out yards on the ground.
Kyle Parker comes in to the game completing 53% of his passes, but the redshirt freshmen has looked much sharper in recent weeks with the emergence of Michael Palmer and Dwayne Allen as primary targets.
Clemson's WR are still a liability outside of speedster, Jacoby Ford, but both Xavier Dye and Terrence Ashe have improved their level of play in recent weeks.
The Tigers have played much better offensively in recent weeks and will need to maintain that high-level of play on the road in Raleigh.
QB - Advantage NCSU
OL – Push to Slight Advantage Clemson
RB - Advantage Clemson
WR - Advantage NCSU
Overall Offense - Advantage NCSU
Defense
North Carolina State
The Pack use a base 4-2-5 defense under Mike Archer that is similar to Vic Koenning’s scheme last year at Clemson. NCSU bring more pressure than Clemson brought under Koenning, but the base defense is similar.
The front-four is the strongest component of their defense led by SR defensive end, Willie Young and SR defensive tackle, Michael Allen-Cash. The Pack have had success stopping the run, but it isn’t a unit that will strike fear into the opposing team.
The back 7 has been hit hard by injuries (Nate Irving, Ryan Cheek, Ray Micheal, Javon Walker, Rashaad Smith) and is lacking in both talent and experience. The Wolfpack play 3 SO linebackers and 3 FR in the secondary and teams have routinely gashed this group both on the ground and through the air.
Clemson
Clemson uses a 4-3 with a base 1-Robber Man or base Cover-2 Man, but Kevin Steele likes to mix in more fronts and bring a variety of pressure.
Clemson is stacked on the defensive line led up the middle by DT's Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson and Ricky Sapp who tops the Tigers with 4 sacks, but DaQuan Bowers will be out again this week with a knee injury.
Clemson's weakest spot defensively is at linebacker, but Steele's plays a lot of nickle bringing in an extra DB. A key for the Tigers will be keeping Wilson in check in the running game and place that Clemson has issues with in losses to TCU and Maryland.
The defensive backs are led by safety DeAndre McDaniel who is first in the nation in interceptions with 8. Crezdon Butler has prospered in the switch from zone to man defense under Steele, but Chris Chancellor has struggled a bit giving up some chunk plays. Back-up CB, Byron Maxwell has really elevated his play in recent weeks.
The biggest issue defensively will be whether or not the defense comes to play on the road. The defense has been outstanding at home, but hasn’t performed up to their capabilities on the road.
DL - Big Advantage Clemson
LB - Advantage Clemson
DB - Big Advantage Clemson
Overall Defense - Big Advantage Clemson
Special Teams
North Carolina State
The Pack are average at kick and punt returns especially with T.J Graham out with a leg injury. Punter, Jeff Ruiz nets an average of 38.8 yards per kick while kicker, Josh Czajkowski is very good having nailed 16 of 19 FG and 100% of his extra points.
Clemson
Clemson has returned 5 kicks for TDs including 3 KOs and 1 PR, by the best return man in the nation in C.J. Spiller. Most teams have started kicking away from Spiller giving Clemson excellent field position as a result.
Punter, Dawson Zimmerman nets an average of 40 yards per kick while Clemson kicking game is currently a mess after imploding during the Florida State game. Spence Benton will start over Richard Jackson.
Kick Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punt Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punting - Push
Kicking – Advantage NCSU
Overall Special Teams - Big Advantage Clemson
Closing Thoughts
NCSU is a mirror image of FSU with good offenses and bad defenses. NCSU has a better DL, while FSU has a better OL (R.J Mattes and Danzelle Good are out for NCSU), so this should be a similar game to last week and might actually be a bit tougher considering it is on the road.
The scariest part of this game is going on the road following a big win at home and coming out flat, but Clemson's offense has improved and their defense has been phyical while creating momentum changing plays, which bodes well for the Tigers avoiding a letdown.
If the Tigers avoid a letdown out of the gate and play up to their potential then the game will not be close, but if Clemson plays down to the competition and it will give the Pack a chance to win the game late.
I think the game will be close until the Tiger’s pull away in the 4th quarter due to superior depth across the depth chart.
Clemson 31 - NCSU 21
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Dear AD: More Port-A-Johns Please
Clemson has one of the best game day experiences in the entire country, but after Saturday night's game against Florida State one area clearly needs to be improved upon as soon as possible. More Port-A-Johns please!
More Please
Waits were out a hand on Saturday in a handful of the parking lots.
- Lot 1 had waits of up to 40 minutes.
- Lot 2 had similar lines as Lot 1.
- Lot 4 had lines of around 30 minutes.
- Lot 25 had extremely long waits
- Lot 6 had a line of around 25-30 minutes.
- Lot 8 lines were 25 minutes or more with Sirrine no longer open
Poeple having to wait in line for over twenty-five minutes is ridiculous especially considering how simple the issue can be fixed by adding a few more Port-A-Johns in some of the problem areas prior to the Virginia game. I know a lot of Clemson supporters and their bladders will thank you.
Reminder: Littlejohn and Doug Kingsmore Stadium's restrooms are open to the public as well and I don't think that message has filtered out to the Clemson faithful, so let this serve as another reminder.
Contact - Jason Wilson - 864-656-2115 - wilson@clemson.edu
More Please
Waits were out a hand on Saturday in a handful of the parking lots.
- Lot 1 had waits of up to 40 minutes.
- Lot 2 had similar lines as Lot 1.
- Lot 4 had lines of around 30 minutes.
- Lot 25 had extremely long waits
- Lot 6 had a line of around 25-30 minutes.
- Lot 8 lines were 25 minutes or more with Sirrine no longer open
Poeple having to wait in line for over twenty-five minutes is ridiculous especially considering how simple the issue can be fixed by adding a few more Port-A-Johns in some of the problem areas prior to the Virginia game. I know a lot of Clemson supporters and their bladders will thank you.
Reminder: Littlejohn and Doug Kingsmore Stadium's restrooms are open to the public as well and I don't think that message has filtered out to the Clemson faithful, so let this serve as another reminder.
Contact - Jason Wilson - 864-656-2115 - wilson@clemson.edu
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Clemson - Florida State Preview
Offense
Florida State
Florida State feature a pro-style offense under Jimbo Fisher, who employs a number a different formation that attempt to attack a defense on all levels. Leading Fisher's offense is dual-threat QB, Christian Ponder (Ponder is questionable with a bruised ribs). The offense leans on the pass more than the run (62% to 38%) and Ponder, who completes just shy of 70% of his attempts, spreads the ball around to bevy of receivers lead by Bert Reed, Rob Owens and Jarmon Fortson.
Christian Ponder
The Noles running attack doesn't strike as much fear in opponents as their passing game, but the ability of Ponder to move the chains with his legs adds another dimension to back Jermaine Thomas.
Clemson
The Tigers also run a pro-style offense under Dabo Swinney and Billy Napier, but prefer to mix in more motion and get the balls in the hands of their running backs and tight ends over their wide receivers. Unlike FSU, Clemson prefers to lean on its running game (55% to 45%) behind Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Spiller and talented redshirt freshman Andre Ellington. Kyle Parker comes in to the game completing just 52% of his passes, but the redshirt freshmen has improved in recent weeks with a focus on getting the ball in the hands of his RBs and TEs. Clemson's WR are a liability outside of speedster, Jacoby Ford, who is the only WR on the roster with over 10 catches.
QB - Big Advantage FSU
OL - Slight Advantage FSU
RB - Big Advantage Clemson
WR - Big Advantage FSU
Overall Offense - Advantage FSU
Defense
Florida State
The Seminoles use a base 4-3 defense with man-free coverage and a rover that has been a staple under Mickey Andrew since the late 80s. The Noles pretty much play the exact same defense 80% of the time, so opposing offenses know exactly what the are facing. Surprisingly a scheme that was dominate throughout the 80s, 90s and most of the 00s has become a huge liability in 2009.
The Noles just are not that talented in their front seven especially up the middle where they start former Byrnes HS tweener DE/DT, Everrett Dawkins at DT and generally lack playmakers outside of former South Aiken HS star Dekota Watson.
The back-four is talented outside of Corey Mangum who makes Kyler Hall look like an All-American, but just doesn't seem to be well coached constantly blowing assignments and allowing wide receivers to run free.
Clemson
Clemson also goes with a 4-3 usually running a base 1-Robber Man or base Cover-2 Man, but Kevin Steele likes to mix in more fronts and bring a variety of pressure.
Clemson is stacked on the defensive line lead up the middle by DT's Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson and on the ends with Dequan Bowers (Bowers is questionable with a knee injury) and Ricky Sapp who leads the Tigers with 4 sacks.
The linebackers are Clemson weakest spot defensive. A key for the Tigers will be keeping Ponder in check in the running game and place that Clemson has issues with in losses to TCU and Maryland.
The defensive backs are lead by safety DeAndre McDaniel who leads the nation in interceptions with 7. Crezdon Butler has prospered in the switch from zone to man defense under Steele, but Chris Chancellor has struggled a bit giving up some chunk plays.
DL - Big Advantage Clemson
LB - Advantage Clemson
DB - Big Advantage Clemson
Overall Defense - Big Advantage Clemson
Special Teams
Florida State
The Noles are average at kick and punt returns, talent freshmen, Greg Reid looks to be the type of player that could take it to the house at anytime.
Punter, Shawn Powell nets an average of 40.7 yards per kick while kicker, Dustin Harris is consistent inside 40 but struggles outside 40, but has distance to hit from 50+.
Clemson
Clemson has returned 5 kicks for TDs including 3 KOs and 1 PR, by the best return man in the nation in C.J. Spiller. Most teams have started kicking away from Spiller giving Clemson excellent field position as a result.
C.J Spiller
Punter, Dawson Zimmerman nets an average of 39 yards per kick while big-legged kicker, Richard Jackson is consistent inside 40 and hits slightly 50% outside 40 yards including 3/3 from 50+.
Kick Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punt Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punting - Advantage FSU
Kicking - Slight Advantage Clemson
Overall Special Teams - Big Advantage Clemson
Closing Thoughts
Florida State has the advantage offensively, but their strength throwing the ball matches-up well with Clemson's strength stopping the pass. Clemson offense is average but goes up against one of the worst defenses in the country in FSU. Clemson will not shut down the Noles offense, but will keep the Noles under 30 points
Clemson special teams should give the Tigers great field position and help their offense put up points perhaps even chipping in another TD if FSU decides to kick to Spiller.
The Valley should be rocking at night and it would take Florida State playing great offensively coupled with an off-night for Parker for the Noles to pull the upset.
Clemson 31 - FSU 24
Florida State
Florida State feature a pro-style offense under Jimbo Fisher, who employs a number a different formation that attempt to attack a defense on all levels. Leading Fisher's offense is dual-threat QB, Christian Ponder (Ponder is questionable with a bruised ribs). The offense leans on the pass more than the run (62% to 38%) and Ponder, who completes just shy of 70% of his attempts, spreads the ball around to bevy of receivers lead by Bert Reed, Rob Owens and Jarmon Fortson.
Christian Ponder
The Noles running attack doesn't strike as much fear in opponents as their passing game, but the ability of Ponder to move the chains with his legs adds another dimension to back Jermaine Thomas.
Clemson
The Tigers also run a pro-style offense under Dabo Swinney and Billy Napier, but prefer to mix in more motion and get the balls in the hands of their running backs and tight ends over their wide receivers. Unlike FSU, Clemson prefers to lean on its running game (55% to 45%) behind Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Spiller and talented redshirt freshman Andre Ellington. Kyle Parker comes in to the game completing just 52% of his passes, but the redshirt freshmen has improved in recent weeks with a focus on getting the ball in the hands of his RBs and TEs. Clemson's WR are a liability outside of speedster, Jacoby Ford, who is the only WR on the roster with over 10 catches.
QB - Big Advantage FSU
OL - Slight Advantage FSU
RB - Big Advantage Clemson
WR - Big Advantage FSU
Overall Offense - Advantage FSU
Defense
Florida State
The Seminoles use a base 4-3 defense with man-free coverage and a rover that has been a staple under Mickey Andrew since the late 80s. The Noles pretty much play the exact same defense 80% of the time, so opposing offenses know exactly what the are facing. Surprisingly a scheme that was dominate throughout the 80s, 90s and most of the 00s has become a huge liability in 2009.
The Noles just are not that talented in their front seven especially up the middle where they start former Byrnes HS tweener DE/DT, Everrett Dawkins at DT and generally lack playmakers outside of former South Aiken HS star Dekota Watson.
The back-four is talented outside of Corey Mangum who makes Kyler Hall look like an All-American, but just doesn't seem to be well coached constantly blowing assignments and allowing wide receivers to run free.
Clemson
Clemson also goes with a 4-3 usually running a base 1-Robber Man or base Cover-2 Man, but Kevin Steele likes to mix in more fronts and bring a variety of pressure.
Clemson is stacked on the defensive line lead up the middle by DT's Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson and on the ends with Dequan Bowers (Bowers is questionable with a knee injury) and Ricky Sapp who leads the Tigers with 4 sacks.
The linebackers are Clemson weakest spot defensive. A key for the Tigers will be keeping Ponder in check in the running game and place that Clemson has issues with in losses to TCU and Maryland.
The defensive backs are lead by safety DeAndre McDaniel who leads the nation in interceptions with 7. Crezdon Butler has prospered in the switch from zone to man defense under Steele, but Chris Chancellor has struggled a bit giving up some chunk plays.
DL - Big Advantage Clemson
LB - Advantage Clemson
DB - Big Advantage Clemson
Overall Defense - Big Advantage Clemson
Special Teams
Florida State
The Noles are average at kick and punt returns, talent freshmen, Greg Reid looks to be the type of player that could take it to the house at anytime.
Punter, Shawn Powell nets an average of 40.7 yards per kick while kicker, Dustin Harris is consistent inside 40 but struggles outside 40, but has distance to hit from 50+.
Clemson
Clemson has returned 5 kicks for TDs including 3 KOs and 1 PR, by the best return man in the nation in C.J. Spiller. Most teams have started kicking away from Spiller giving Clemson excellent field position as a result.
C.J Spiller
Punter, Dawson Zimmerman nets an average of 39 yards per kick while big-legged kicker, Richard Jackson is consistent inside 40 and hits slightly 50% outside 40 yards including 3/3 from 50+.
Kick Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punt Return - Big Advantage Clemson
Punting - Advantage FSU
Kicking - Slight Advantage Clemson
Overall Special Teams - Big Advantage Clemson
Closing Thoughts
Florida State has the advantage offensively, but their strength throwing the ball matches-up well with Clemson's strength stopping the pass. Clemson offense is average but goes up against one of the worst defenses in the country in FSU. Clemson will not shut down the Noles offense, but will keep the Noles under 30 points
Clemson special teams should give the Tigers great field position and help their offense put up points perhaps even chipping in another TD if FSU decides to kick to Spiller.
The Valley should be rocking at night and it would take Florida State playing great offensively coupled with an off-night for Parker for the Noles to pull the upset.
Clemson 31 - FSU 24
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